First and foremost, please be safe!
Due to the seismic societal shifts and economic paradigm transformations that will negatively impact all industries, businesses, and citizens . . . we developed the following COVID-19 Economic Impact Scenario Model for our clients, colleagues, and friends. We will be updating this chart several times a week. Please scroll below for more details about our proprietary TPSI (1000 Point Strength Index), recession planning services, and other data-analytics services. And as always, please contact us at 714-545-2555 or info@competitiveanalytics.com if you have any questions, comments, or requests about data, analytics, economics, strategy, and business intelligence.
COVID-19 Scenarios
The following five sceanrios are a preliminary series of what-if machine learning models producing a range of COVID-19 impact scenarios - and how COVID-19 will impact the US macroeconomy, and thus, how COVID-19 will impact all industries, companies, and consumers. Our TPSI for the US economy as of March 23, 2020 (monthly from Jan 1798 to Mar 2020p) = 452.3 - which is materially below the 500.0 equilibrium benchmark AND 88.1 points BELOW the economic cycle peak of 540.4 during May 2018. For the first 23 days of March 2020, the US TPSI already realized a historical one month slide of 37.7 points BELOW February 2020's TPSI of 490.0 - this 37.7 point drop equates to the 0.9975 percentile of all time monthly decreases. Another way to look at it: the Median Monthly TPSI Drop for 222 years of data = 3.85 points - thus, March 2020’s drop of 37.7 points is ~8x greater than the typical TPSI drop!
It should be emphasized that the US TPSI was already trending lower since the cycle peak of 540.4 during May 2018 (despite many economists and media outlets claiming the economy was continuing to grow and accelerate during this time by myopically focusing on a handful of economic indicators such as GDP and DJIA), market forces were already pressuring the US TPSI downward since May 2018 . . . and current fears of potential exponential spread of COVID-19 is expected to exacerbate and quicken the already decreasing US TPSI.
The following five COVID-19 Impact Scenarios illustrate the serious tectonic shift in economic conditions that has already started. Stay tuned for updates . . . Competitive Analytics is planning to update these forecast scenarios daily. As always, please do not hesitate to contact me if you have any questions, comments.
About TPSI (1000 Point Strength Index)
Competitive Analytics’ proprietary 1000 Point Strength Index (“TPSI”) integrates over 500,000 macro-micro economic indicators and empowers executives with the most accurate understanding of the strength, direction, and momentum of the U.S. economy as well as all sectors and industries. The TPSI ranges from zero to 1000 where 500 is benchmarked as the mathematical stabilized equilibrium. Historical figures and forecasts above or below 500 reflect relative strength or weakness, respectively. Competitive Analytics’ TPSI has been used for analyzing multiple sectors, industries, companies, products, assets, and strategies. Another valuable attribute of the TPSI is the ability to compare relative strengths and weaknesses across all components and dimensions of an organization, competitive landscape, economy, and/or market. Our TPSI is one of the core tools we designed and developed - that not only is used to measure macroeconomic performance, industry performance, geospatial scoring and ranking, competitive performance, etc. - Competitive Analytics also designed the TPSI to be used for diagnostic, predictive, and prescriptive modeling projects and initiatives for our clients’ need for price optimization, product segmentation, expense minimization, logistics, demand forecasting, HR/people analytics, etc. The TPSI also is designed to be applied across all industries for a diverse cross-section of clients (users of our TPSI include Toyota, Honda, Cetera Financial, Boeing, Macy’s, Yamaha, Eaton, City of Anaheim, and many others). Moreover, the TPSI integrates myriad external times series data (macroeconomic, microeconomic, demographic, psychometric, etc.) with internal client KPIs, accounting data, budget data, pro forma financials, sales data, etc. Thus, a company can visualize their performance with all potential correlative drivers and leading indicators in a holistic and insightful way. And our TPSI is updated via machine learning every day.
Fractional Analytics (Analytics as a Service)
For medium to large businesses, data and analytics is critical to sustaining competitive advantage. However, with 80% of IT and analytics projects either failing or having little to no impact, now is the time to re-evaluate the inputs of your internal IT/BI/Analytics functions...and Competitive Analytics can help develop a detailed analytics-driven plan for the following strategies:
Software Review and Optimization (free versions, lower cost versions)
Hardware
IT Guys/Analysts/Data Scientists
Recession Planning via Data and Analytics
Unfortunately, time is of the essence in determining the who, what, when, where, why of cost and expense reduction. And these decisions should be made with a caring, logical, and data driven approach. Competitive Analytics can help develop a detailed analytics-driven plan for the following strategies:
Operating Cost Reduction
Capital Cost Reduction
Technology Cost Reduction
Human Resource Reduction
Increasing Operational Efficiency
Increasing Convenience and Value to Existing Customers