Competitive Analytics | Home Prices and Home Sales - Competitive Analytics

Home Prices and Home Sales

June 30, 2009

Home Prices and Home Sales have myriad sources and methods of calculation, and unfortunately, wide variations of accuracy and relevance.  One source deserving close attention is the S&P/Case-Shiller Indices.  April 2009 data was just released a few hours ago (6:00AM PST) and we drafted two tables for you that illustrate how the 20 largest sub-markets are performing vis-à-vis “April over April” analysis.

Table I – Annual Home Price Appreciation Continues To Decelerate…

• The 20 City Composite Index decreased 18.12% from April 2008 to April 2009 which contrasts with our long-term Cycle Equilibrium of +4.12%.  This translates into 22.24 percentage points BELOW Cycle EQ.  In other words, we have a long way to go to get back to normal levels.

• Dallas, Denver, Boston, and Charlotte are the only CMAs realizing sub-10% annual depreciation.

• Las Vegas and Phoenix are the only CMAs realizing 30%+ annual depreciation.

• Phoenix is enduring the steepest decline from relative peak to trough with a 54.1% nosedive.

• Dallas is suffering the smallest decline from relative peak to trough with a 9.6% slump.

• Charlotte, Seattle, Chicago, Portland, and Phoenix are the 5 CMAs realizing a 9+ percentage point decrease from April 2008 to April 2009.

• And an iota of good news…San Diego and Los Angeles are the only 2 CMAs realizinglower levels of depreciation from April 2008 to April 2009.

• If you require home price analytics, valuation, and/or forecasting for a specific sub-market(s), project(s), distressed asset(s), product type(s) by any of the 30 geographic levels, please call.

 
Rank
CMA
April 1999
April 2000
April 2001
April 2002
April 2003
April 2004
April 2005
April 2006
April 2007
April 2008
April 2009
April 2010
Cycle EQ
VEQ
1
Dallas
   
+ 6.37%
+ 3.07%
+ 0.07%
+ 0.87%
+ 3.65%
+ 3.40%
+ 1.89%
– 3.46%
– 4.98%
CO
+ 1.21%
– 6.19%
2
Denver
+ 12.06%
+ 12.88%
+ 14.44%
+ 4.03%
+ 2.01%
+ 2.53%
+ 4.29%
+ 2.56%
– 1.76%
– 4.72%
– 4.92%
CO
+ 4.63%
– 9.55%
3
Boston
+ 12.46%
+ 13.27%
+ 17.69%
+ 9.71%
+ 12.81%
+ 9.22%
+ 8.98%
– 0.79%
– 4.51%
– 6.44%
– 7.71%
CO
+ 3.60%
– 11.30%
4
Charlotte
+ 5.26%
+ 4.23%
+ 1.51%
+ 2.09%
+ 1.61%
+ 3.69%
+ 2.91%
+ 7.37%
+ 6.97%
– 0.13%
– 9.95%
CO
+ 2.77%
– 12.72%
5
Cleveland
+ 5.17%
+ 4.96%
+ 2.91%
+ 3.31%
+ 3.77%
+ 4.62%
+ 3.08%
+ 0.17%
– 2.71%
– 6.82%
– 10.48%
CO
+ 2.66%
– 13.13%
6
New York
+ 8.06%
+ 11.81%
+ 12.88%
+ 10.67%
+ 16.88%
+ 12.55%
+ 15.33%
+ 10.75%
– 1.56%
– 7.98%
– 12.53%
CO
+ 3.76%
– 16.29%
7
Atlanta
+ 6.68%
+ 7.92%
+ 5.44%
+ 3.99%
+ 3.27%
+ 3.48%
+ 4.85%
+ 4.44%
+ 2.10%
– 7.93%
– 14.77%
CO
+ 2.49%
– 17.26%
8
DC
+ 5.47%
+ 8.80%
+ 14.09%
+ 10.92%
+ 13.87%
+ 18.60%
+ 26.88%
+ 11.64%
– 5.60%
– 14.76%
– 16.90%
CO
+ 4.29%
– 21.19%
9
Seattle
+ 8.90%
+ 9.30%
+ 5.33%
+ 4.07%
+ 4.26%
+ 8.46%
+ 14.02%
+ 17.83%
+ 9.64%
– 4.93%
– 16.81%
CO
+ 4.73%
– 21.55%
10
Chicago
+ 4.38%
+ 9.26%
+ 7.64%
+ 7.54%
+ 8.47%
+ 7.91%
+ 10.07%
+ 8.02%
+ 0.18%
– 9.31%
– 18.70%
CO
+ 3.27%
– 21.97%
 
C-10
+ 9.28%
+ 12.38%
+ 13.39%
+ 8.49%
+ 14.46%
+ 17.16%
+ 18.03%
+ 11.10%
– 2.69%
– 16.25%
– 18.01%
CO
+ 4.06%
– 22.07%
 
C-20
   
+ 11.39%
+ 7.49%
+ 11.81%
+ 14.37%
+ 16.26%
+ 11.17%
– 2.09%
– 15.24%
– 18.12%
CO
+ 4.12%
– 22.24%
11
Portland
+ 3.99%
+ 3.29%
+ 3.09%
+ 5.24%
+ 4.71%
+ 7.86%
+ 12.94%
+ 22.28%
+ 6.35%
– 4.73%
– 16.02%
CO
+ 6.40%
– 22.42%
12
Tampa
+ 4.36%
+ 7.18%
+ 10.90%
+ 9.02%
+ 10.39%
+ 12.02%
+ 22.74%
+ 25.97%
– 4.97%
– 20.36%
– 21.34%
CO
+ 3.33%
– 24.67%
13
San Diego
+ 12.69%
+ 14.25%
+ 16.61%
+ 9.85%
+ 18.65%
+ 27.09%
+ 17.65%
+ 4.08%
– 6.69%
– 22.39%
– 20.01%
CO
+ 5.00%
– 25.01%
14
Minneap.
+ 9.29%
+ 11.45%
+ 13.76%
+ 9.89%
+ 9.57%
+ 8.92%
+ 6.49%
+ 4.70%
– 2.89%
– 15.40%
– 22.07%
CO
+ 3.14%
– 25.21%
15
LA
+ 11.90%
+ 10.38%
+ 10.05%
+ 10.61%
+ 18.55%
+ 29.11%
+ 19.86%
+ 16.78%
– 2.61%
– 23.13%
– 21.28%
CO
+ 4.91%
– 26.19%
16
Detroit
+ 7.61%
+ 8.66%
+ 6.53%
+ 3.68%
+ 4.28%
+ 3.57%
+ 3.19%
– 0.02%
– 7.98%
– 18.03%
– 25.43%
CO
+ 1.52%
– 26.95%
17
Miami
+ 5.10%
+ 6.44%
+ 11.28%
+ 12.81%
+ 16.05%
+ 16.35%
+ 28.28%
+ 24.82%
– 1.03%
– 26.73%
– 27.27%
CO
+ 4.26%
– 31.53%
18
San Fran
+ 12.81%
+ 24.39%
+ 21.10%
– 1.31%
+ 9.10%
+ 13.80%
+ 22.60%
+ 7.76%
– 2.78%
– 22.15%
– 28.04%
CO
+ 4.72%
– 32.76%
19
Las Vegas
+ 2.13%
+ 4.77%
+ 6.13%
+ 6.82%
+ 8.49%
+ 33.63%
+ 28.98%
+ 8.98%
– 3.05%
– 26.89%
– 32.18%
CO
+ 3.48%
– 35.66%
20
Phoenix
+ 7.46%
+ 7.93%
+ 5.60%
+ 5.09%
+ 5.32%
+ 8.99%
+ 33.04%
+ 30.07%
– 4.48%
– 24.98%
– 35.26%
CO
+ 3.30%
– 38.56%
 
 

Table II – Duplicate Home Sales Showing Signs of a Bottom…

• Duplicate Sales for the 20 City Composite for April 2009 registered 65,848, a slight decreaseof only 1,697 (2.5%) from April 2008.

• Duplicate Sales for the 10 City Composite for April 2009 registered 35,913, a slight increase of 690 (2.0%) from April 2008.

• Phoenix and Dallas are the only 2 CMAs that realized duplicate sales during April 2009above their respective Cycle Equilibrium levels.

• Phoenix, Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco registered impressive year-over-year gains of over 1,000 duplicate sales.

• If you require home sales analytics and/or forecasts for a specific sub-market(s), project(s), distressed asset(s), product type(s) by any of the 30 geographic levels, please call.

Rank
CMA
April 1999
April 2000
April 2001
April 2002
April 2003
April 2004
April 2005
April 2006
April 2007
April 2008
April 2009
April 2010
Cycle EQ
VEQ
1
Phoenix
7,005
4,277
8,092
8,316
8,749
11,010
15,590
11,422
8,464
6,201
10,467
CO
7,212
3,255
2
Dallas
 
301
1,078
1,881
2,470
3,596
4,653
5,605
6,181
6,056
4,863
CO
3,668
1,195
3
San Diego
3,552
3,386
3,080
3,781
3,751
4,214
3,799
2,820
2,271
2,016
3,250
CO
3,382
– 132
4
Minneap.
2,843
2,753
3,127
4,597
4,883
5,324
4,663
4,702
3,570
3,097
2,959
CO
3,193
– 234
5
Las Vegas
1,740
1,788
2,458
2,676
3,909
6,218
5,772
4,809
2,977
1,282
1,671
CO
2,036
– 365
6
Charlotte
1,913
1,837
1,753
1,972
1,718
1,799
2,226
2,832
3,193
2,186
1,170
CO
1,793
– 623
7
Portland
2,585
2,326
2,786
3,190
3,098
3,375
4,301
4,082
3,697
2,265
1,614
CO
2,453
– 839
8
Chicago
2,833
3,184
4,399
5,006
5,119
5,766
6,792
7,311
5,588
3,414
2,393
CO
3,288
– 895
9
DC
4,250
4,684
5,044
5,995
6,063
8,027
10,418
8,553
7,387
4,104
3,893
CO
4,834
– 941
10
Cleveland
1,920
2,004
1,889
2,146
1,596
1,697
1,465
1,613
1,317
760
491
CO
1,494
– 1,003
11
San Fran
5,198
4,973
3,728
5,242
4,882
5,938
5,559
4,505
3,692
2,809
3,864
CO
4,940
– 1,076
12
Detroit
3,392
3,392
3,511
3,099
1,812
3,617
3,906
2,323
2,580
1,644
1,561
CO
2,656
– 1,095
13
Boston
3,083
2,744
2,517
3,332
2,683
3,563
3,030
2,817
2,641
1,881
1,482
CO
2,644
– 1,162
14
Denver
4,238
3,125
5,199
5,393
4,423
5,091
5,258
4,802
4,505
3,675
2,866
CO
4,164
– 1,298
15
Tampa
4,087
3,897
4,127
5,018
3,413
3,941
5,594
4,737
3,117
1,959
1,953
CO
3,548
– 1,595
16
Atlanta
4,072
4,296
4,825
5,565
5,227
6,160
7,022
8,895
8,017
5,049
2,882
CO
4,591
– 1,709
17
Seattle
3,504
3,606
3,877
4,028
4,559
5,397
5,958
6,035
5,075
3,105
1,975
CO
3,954
– 1,979
18
LA
11,972
11,281
10,530
12,687
12,360
13,139
13,956
11,523
8,657
5,505
9,009
CO
11,826
– 2,817
19
New York
7,787
7,836
7,819
10,333
10,258
13,032
13,276
13,485
11,578
7,681
4,387
CO
7,739
– 3,352
20
Miami
6,820
7,871
8,057
8,514
8,984
9,533
11,022
7,788
5,827
2,856
3,098
CO
6,511
– 3,413
                               
 
C-10
51,473
50,872
52,831
62,959
62,432
74,521
78,882
68,413
55,123
35,223
35,913
CO
51,364
– 15,451
 
C-20
82,794
79,561
87,896
102,771
99,957
120,437
134,260
120,659
100,334
67,545
65,848
CO
97,927
– 32,079
 
KEY
CMA = Competitive Market Area
Cycle EQ = Competitive Analytics calculation of the long-term April benchmark of stabilized growth
VEQ = Variance from April 2009 to Cycle EQ
CO = Client Only
 
Why Track this Indicator? Home Sales and Home Prices are critical indicators that measure demand within geographic sub-markets.  Call us if you require assistance in customizing your analysis.  Here are links for additional info:
 
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